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| Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock |
Margins in the runoff versus the general election, county by county, have been a lot better for Warnock than for Walker. Overall In the general election Warnock had a slight lead. So its pretty clear Raphael Warnock will win the runoff. Yay!
From https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-senate-warnock-walker/:
We now have 95 percent or more of the expected vote reporting from 93 counties, more than half of the 159 in Georgia. In those counties, which are mostly GOP-heavy rural areas, Walker leads by 26 points. But he’s actually doing about 0.3 points worse by margin in those counties than he did in November, and since Warnock led the initial vote by 1 point, Walker needs more. You can see this to some extent in the table below, as Warnock is tending to outperform the November vote margin in these places more often than Walker.
How the runoff vote reported so far compares with the general election
County vote-share margins between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker in the general election and the runoff, as of 8:59 p.m. Eastern
| COUNTY▲▼ | GENERAL ELECTION MARGIN▲▼ | RUNOFF MARGIN▲▼ | CHANGE▲▼ | PERCENT REPORTING▲▼ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appling | R+61.2 | R+56.5 | D+4.8 | 60% |
| Atkinson | R+53.9 | R+53.8 | D+0.1 | 58 |
| Bacon | R+74.0 | R+74.8 | R+0.7 | 95 |
| Baker | R+14.8 | R+11.0 | D+3.8 | 87 |
| Baldwin | R+0.6 | D+1.1 | D+1.7 | 95 |
| Banks | R+76.6 | R+75.4 | D+1.2 | 58 |
| Barrow | R+40.6 | R+39.3 | D+1.4 | 88 |
| Bartow | R+50.3 | R+47.2 | D+3.1 | 75 |
| Ben Hill | R+28.9 | R+27.5 | D+1.4 | 95 |
| Berrien | R+68.3 | R+69.6 | R+1.3 | 95 |
| Bibb | D+23.9 | D+35.3 | D+11.4 | 64 |
| Bleckley | R+55.0 | R+54.7 | D+0.3 | 95 |
| Brantley | R+82.1 | R+83.0 | R+1.0 | 95 |
| Brooks | R+27.3 | R+27.0 | D+0.3 | 95 |
| Bryan | R+33.9 | R+22.6 | D+11.3 | 63 |
| Bulloch | R+28.4 | R+22.6 | D+5.8 | 91 |
| Burke | R+6.8 | R+4.7 | D+2.1 | 95 |
| Butts | R+42.8 | R+42.7 | — | 95 |
| Calhoun | D+14.1 | D+16.4 | D+2.4 | 95 |
| Camden | R+33.2 | R+31.8 | D+1.4 | 95 |
| Candler | R+45.1 | R+42.8 | D+2.3 | 95 |
| Carroll | R+39.7 | R+39.4 | D+0.3 | 95 |
| Catoosa | R+54.4 | R+49.0 | D+5.4 | 58 |
| Charlton | R+52.3 | R+47.0 | D+5.3 | 85 |
| Chatham | D+20.6 | D+40.5 | D+19.9 | 48 |
| Chattahoochee | R+8.4 | R+3.8 | D+4.6 | 95 |
| Chattooga | R+58.2 | R+60.6 | R+2.3 | 95 |
| Cherokee | R+38.3 | R+33.9 | D+4.4 | 58 |
| Clarke | D+44.2 | D+51.7 | D+7.5 | 76 |
| Clay | D+3.9 | D+5.0 | D+1.1 | 95 |
| Clayton | D+76.2 | D+81.0 | D+4.8 | 60 |
| Clinch | R+56.6 | R+53.2 | D+3.4 | 95 |
| Cobb | D+16.3 | D+30.8 | D+14.5 | 56 |
| Coffee | R+44.1 | R+42.0 | D+2.2 | 95 |
| Colquitt | R+51.2 | R+51.7 | R+0.5 | 73 |
| Columbia | R+26.7 | R+13.7 | D+13.1 | 55 |
| Cook | R+44.2 | R+43.5 | D+0.7 | 95 |
| Coweta | R+33.7 | R+23.3 | D+10.3 | 47 |
| Crawford | R+44.5 | R+44.6 | R+0.1 | 95 |
| Crisp | R+30.0 | R+29.5 | D+0.6 | 95 |
| Dade | R+63.6 | — | 0 | |
| Dawson | R+64.2 | R+67.8 | R+3.6 | 95 |
| Decatur | R+24.1 | R+22.6 | D+1.5 | 95 |
| DeKalb | D+70.2 | D+83.2 | D+13.1 | 45 |
| Dodge | R+49.3 | — | 0 | |
| Dooly | R+9.9 | R+7.8 | D+2.1 | 95 |
| Dougherty | D+40.8 | D+63.7 | D+22.9 | 42 |
| Douglas | D+31.4 | D+32.0 | D+0.6 | 95 |
| Early | R+14.4 | R+9.8 | D+4.6 | 95 |
| Echols | R+79.0 | R+81.5 | R+2.5 | 95 |
| Effingham | R+46.5 | R+43.3 | D+3.2 | 65 |
| Elbert | R+41.9 | R+41.7 | D+0.2 | 95 |
| Emanuel | R+42.0 | R+41.2 | D+0.8 | 95 |
| Evans | R+40.3 | R+39.7 | D+0.7 | 95 |
| Fannin | R+62.2 | R+58.7 | D+3.5 | 69 |
| Fayette | R+3.2 | D+9.5 | D+12.7 | 66 |
| Floyd | R+40.0 | R+41.0 | R+1.0 | 95 |
| Forsyth | R+32.6 | R+27.9 | D+4.6 | 53 |
| Franklin | R+71.3 | R+73.1 | R+1.8 | 95 |
| Fulton | D+49.0 | D+64.5 | D+15.6 | 55 |
| Gilmer | R+61.7 | R+63.2 | R+1.5 | 95 |
| Glascock | R+81.7 | R+82.8 | R+1.1 | 99 |
| Glynn | R+26.9 | R+24.7 | D+2.2 | 95 |
| Gordon | R+61.7 | R+64.5 | R+2.8 | 95 |
| Grady | R+36.9 | R+34.9 | D+2.0 | 95 |
| Greene | R+30.8 | R+29.8 | D+1.1 | 95 |
| Gwinnett | D+20.4 | D+33.1 | D+12.7 | 61 |
| Habersham | R+62.9 | R+64.8 | R+1.9 | 95 |
| Hall | R+44.4 | R+42.7 | D+1.8 | 71 |
| Hancock | D+40.8 | D+48.5 | D+7.7 | 67 |
| Haralson | R+71.5 | R+73.7 | R+2.2 | 95 |
| Harris | R+44.4 | R+45.4 | R+1.0 | 95 |
| Hart | R+53.9 | R+53.6 | D+0.3 | 95 |
| Heard | R+67.5 | R+68.4 | R+0.9 | 95 |
| Henry | D+29.3 | D+45.5 | D+16.1 | 60 |
| Houston | R+11.2 | R+8.1 | D+3.1 | 86 |
| Irwin | R+54.2 | R+55.0 | R+0.8 | 95 |
| Jackson | R+56.4 | R+52.1 | D+4.3 | 52 |
| Jasper | R+53.4 | R+54.7 | R+1.3 | 95 |
| Jeff Davis | R+66.3 | R+64.8 | D+1.5 | 95 |
| Jefferson | D+1.9 | D+3.1 | D+1.2 | 95 |
| Jenkins | R+33.1 | R+30.7 | D+2.4 | 95 |
| Johnson | R+47.9 | R+42.9 | D+5.0 | 95 |
| Jones | R+33.4 | R+34.8 | R+1.4 | 79 |
| Lamar | R+42.5 | R+41.9 | D+0.6 | 95 |
| Lanier | R+43.3 | R+42.8 | D+0.4 | 95 |
| Laurens | R+31.3 | R+31.0 | D+0.3 | 95 |
| Lee | R+42.5 | R+42.1 | D+0.4 | 95 |
| Liberty | D+26.8 | D+40.8 | D+14.0 | 75 |
| Lincoln | R+44.6 | R+43.6 | D+0.9 | 95 |
| Long | R+27.5 | R+9.9 | D+17.6 | 50 |
| Lowndes | R+18.4 | R+18.2 | D+0.2 | 95 |
| Lumpkin | R+57.0 | R+54.3 | D+2.7 | 59 |
| McDuffie | R+23.7 | R+22.4 | D+1.3 | 95 |
| McIntosh | R+23.6 | R+22.6 | D+1.0 | 95 |
| Macon | D+21.5 | D+19.2 | R+2.3 | 79 |
| Madison | R+52.0 | R+54.6 | R+2.6 | 66 |
| Marion | R+25.8 | R+23.3 | D+2.5 | 95 |
| Meriwether | R+22.2 | R+22.3 | — | 76 |
| Miller | R+51.6 | R+54.3 | R+2.7 | 99 |
| Mitchell | R+14.7 | R+14.1 | D+0.6 | 95 |
| Monroe | R+43.4 | R+42.8 | D+0.6 | 95 |
| Montgomery | R+52.9 | R+50.5 | D+2.4 | 95 |
| Morgan | R+44.5 | R+32.9 | D+11.5 | 73 |
| Murray | R+71.5 | R+73.9 | R+2.3 | 85 |
| Muscogee | D+25.9 | D+40.0 | D+14.1 | 74 |
| Newton | D+15.9 | D+27.2 | D+11.3 | 62 |
| Oconee | R+34.5 | R+34.5 | D+0.1 | 95 |
| Oglethorpe | R+38.9 | R+38.7 | D+0.2 | 95 |
| Paulding | R+24.4 | R+22.7 | D+1.7 | 89 |
| Peach | R+4.5 | R+4.0 | D+0.5 | 95 |
| Pickens | R+63.1 | R+64.5 | R+1.4 | 59 |
| Pierce | R+77.4 | R+77.0 | D+0.4 | 95 |
| Pike | R+71.2 | R+72.6 | R+1.4 | 95 |
| Polk | R+56.3 | R+58.7 | R+2.4 | 95 |
| Pulaski | R+39.1 | R+38.2 | D+0.9 | 95 |
| Putnam | R+42.3 | R+35.5 | D+6.8 | 69 |
| Quitman | R+14.7 | R+18.2 | R+3.5 | 95 |
| Rabun | R+53.3 | R+54.2 | R+0.9 | 95 |
| Randolph | D+8.2 | D+12.2 | D+4.0 | 95 |
| Richmond | D+37.7 | D+42.5 | D+4.9 | 95 |
| Rockdale | D+48.2 | D+51.0 | D+2.8 | 95 |
| Schley | R+57.9 | R+59.9 | R+2.0 | 95 |
| Screven | R+22.6 | R+20.4 | D+2.2 | 87 |
| Seminole | R+43.8 | R+42.3 | D+1.6 | 95 |
| Spalding | R+17.3 | R+15.2 | D+2.2 | 72 |
| Stephens | R+60.1 | R+62.5 | R+2.3 | 91 |
| Stewart | D+17.7 | D+25.4 | D+7.7 | 99 |
| Sumter | D+3.2 | D+22.3 | D+19.1 | 57 |
| Talbot | D+20.0 | D+22.6 | D+2.6 | 66 |
| Taliaferro | D+21.7 | D+20.6 | R+1.1 | 95 |
| Tattnall | R+51.4 | R+49.0 | D+2.4 | 63 |
| Taylor | R+27.3 | R+29.8 | R+2.4 | 93 |
| Telfair | R+38.5 | R+35.8 | D+2.7 | 85 |
| Terrell | D+5.7 | D+6.2 | D+0.4 | 95 |
| Thomas | R+23.5 | R+22.0 | D+1.6 | 95 |
| Tift | R+38.9 | R+37.0 | D+1.9 | 95 |
| Toombs | R+50.1 | R+49.1 | D+0.9 | 95 |
| Towns | R+59.2 | R+60.6 | R+1.4 | 95 |
| Treutlen | R+41.3 | R+41.3 | — | 95 |
| Troup | R+22.1 | R+12.8 | D+9.3 | 67 |
| Turner | R+24.0 | R+25.0 | R+1.0 | 95 |
| Twiggs | R+8.1 | R+6.4 | D+1.7 | 95 |
| Union | R+60.4 | R+61.6 | R+1.3 | 95 |
| Upson | R+34.9 | R+35.6 | R+0.7 | 95 |
| Walker | R+57.7 | R+59.7 | R+1.9 | 89 |
| Walton | R+47.0 | R+44.0 | D+3.0 | 87 |
| Ware | R+42.9 | R+25.5 | D+17.4 | 71 |
| Warren | D+5.1 | D+5.1 | — | 95 |
| Washington | R+1.4 | D+5.2 | D+6.6 | 91 |
| Wayne | R+58.3 | R+57.9 | D+0.4 | 95 |
| Webster | R+20.8 | R+18.9 | D+1.9 | 95 |
| Wheeler | R+40.3 | R+43.1 | R+2.8 | 95 |
| White | R+64.7 | R+66.3 | R+1.6 | 75 |
| Whitfield | R+46.4 | R+48.3 | R+1.8 | 94 |
| Wilcox | R+49.9 | R+48.3 | D+1.5 | 95 |
| Wilkes | R+17.5 | R+16.1 | D+1.4 | 95 |
| Wilkinson | R+13.5 | — | 0 | |
| Worth | R+48.6 | R+48.7 | R+0.1 | 95 |
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