Sunday, October 21, 2012

October 21st, 2012


today's ditty:  Beethoven Symphony No 7 Op 92 VPO Hans Schmidt Isserstedt (1969)


Something quite cool that I just ran across:  an on-line trading exchange website called  Intrade
What it is, according to Wikipedia:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrade.   

What I see it as:  
  • a way to bet money on upcoming events
  • a source of unclouded, unpoliticized information for the probability of upcoming events
Basically what a member of Intrade does is buy "shares" on whether or not an event will occur. If the event does occur he will be paid $10 for each share he owns. If the event does not occur then his shares will return $0.

Right now, you can buy shares on the bet that Romney win the presidency for $3.89 each.  If you think Obama will win it you can buy shares on that for $6.13 each.   The charts below show the trends in the prices. These charts indicate the the race has settled out to about 60/40 in favor of Obama.  Its really interesting, prior to the first debate it looked like it was virtually a sure win for Obama..

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