Thursday, December 23, 2021

Omicron - the end of the pandemic?

As of today it appears the size of the omicron wave will exceed that of the delta wave.



In the 3 weeks since omicron first appeared in the US it has taken hold first in the Northeast. This is likely due to a combination of factors: (1) omicron arriving in the Northeast earlier than in most other US regions; (2) colder weather in the NE sending people indoors and enhancing the spread; (3) higher population density in the NE.



We're currently seeing only the start of the omicron wave. I expect national case numbers will go much higher as the omicron strain dominates in the other regions of the country, and then as it eventually peaks out.

Considering omicron's high spreading rates, I expect the pandemic will be over with by the end of March. At that point in time ~95% of the unvaccinated in the US will have contracted the disease, so at that point 99% of us will have some level of immunity. Covid will then be endemic. It may be with us for decades after that but covid death rates will be much much lower.

1 comment:

  1. I will forward on a WP article concerning the current cases in the hospital. The article states the current hospital load is Delta amongst the unvaccinated. Staining capacity in the NE. There was also a decent article on how to deal with it should you get COVID (either type).

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