There is something big looming on the horizon that we should be concerned with. Today the world's total electronic computing power is 1% of that of the collective 7 billion human brains in the world. For over 50 years now, since 1960, we have seen a doubling in computing power each 18 months. This trend has been extremely solid and unwavering - despite recessions and other major happenings in the world. Given that it continues (granted, this is not an absolute certainty), then 10 years from now, in 2022, the world's electronic computing power will match that of all of the human brains in the world. Call this the 100% level. Others call it the technological singularity. What exactly will occur at or around this 100% level is a topic of much discussion and debate. But all who have seriously considered this question agree - the world will be very different. And they all agree that as we approach 100% the pace of technology advancement and major changes in our societies will accelerate greatly.
Today, at the 1% level, we are already seeing a pace of change in our lives that is in excess of anything in the past. Farms today use GPS and satellite imagery data to apply fertilizers to their fields only where its needed. Computer monitoring of cows milk production, weight and a dozen other parameters is today essential if a modern farm is to stay competitive. With cell phones and the internet, communications are 100 times what they were 50 years ago. With personal computers and smartphones information availability is 1000 times what it was. Consider the Arab spring. Consider how auto emissions have been reduced and fuel efficiencies have been enhanced via computer systems. Consider how manufacturing efficiencies have been improved with computerization - the fraction of the workforce needed to supply all of our manufacturing and industry needs has in just 50 years time dropped from 40% to less than 15%. Consider how the human genome was decoded in 2003 following 13 years of effort, while today an individual's genome can be decoded in less than 2 weeks...
All of this, and much more, has happened while we've been working our way up from the 0.000000001% level of 50 years ago to the 1% level of today.
So, buckle yourself in and be ready for the ride of your life as, in just the next 10 years, the other 99% kicks in!
For more information on this subject I recommend starting here: technological singularity. (Note: I consider the technological singularity in the broader sense of "radical changes in our society brought about by new technologies", rather than the emergence of AI.)
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I am not sure I follow you on immense change due to Computer -based technology singularity.
ReplyDeleteLook at Greece today , look at Argentina today , and other "failed" nations ...
How did the computer "revolution" changed their lives? Did it change it at all? What impact (positive or negative did it have so far there?). One reads a lot about starvation in Greece, lack of necessities. This is a developed Western society.
Economic downfall in Western societies will probably have immense effect on societal behavior, i.e. create downfall, chaos, crime, death and destruction.
Computers? AI? So if you aligned 1 B people (let's say China + India) along one project like search and development of new technologies for renewable energy - would that revolutionize the world? Maybe, but highly doubtful. So what will equivalent brain power of 10 B people do? If the energy becomes ever more expensive and depleted? What will genetics, and other sciences do w/o energy - even at high intellectual level? Yes, life will be longer, diseases will be harnessed, genetic defects removed or controlled. But where is cheap energy to propel economies? Complex societies, complex economies will have to simplify, "regionalize", become self-reliant , etc.
The basis for industrial revolutions in the past was harnessing new higher -efficiency energy sources , say donkey into maybe horse, then wind into steam, steam into burning oil, burning oil into nuclear, etc. Energy was always the catalyst in next stage of technological revolution. When cost of energy goes significantly up, what will create the exponential growth in economy that want to continuously evolve into more and more complex form of societal behavior? My guess is , Western societies will have to simplify, all societies will have to simplify. That will lead to tremendous changes - in this scenario computer power comes in , say equivalent to 10 B brains. This will become very unpredictable how and who will be using it to achieve some advantage over those who will acquire it later... Knowing human beings, this does not mean neither a peaceful coexistence on the planet nor equality between the nations. Scarcity of resources always lead to wars. The computers will be used to outplay the opponent and acquire ever decreasing energy sources -leading to supremacy. Look at drones or spying satellites as examples - loaded with electronics and a lot of computing power. They are definitely used to provide economic/military advantage to the owner. My fear is , the 10B brain power will be used exactly by the same people/governments to achieve the same goals... As far as next generation , more efficient energy sources are concerned? It's possible that equivalent of cold fusion, or new atom-level energy release technology will be discovered or invented. 10 B brain power can achieve a lot. But , at the moment, Japan almost shut down all nuclear power plants, Germany similarly. The power plants in US on East Coast were in danger during Sandy. Hard to see a breakthrough here but maybe...
I will have to continue with a second comment box,
Peter
continuing from the previous comment:
ReplyDeleteI agree that trying to predict the future is not so easy - but look at Orwell (1984?) and how well he predicted today's behavior of the imperialistic country . Are societies getting more peaceful, cooperative? Why does US spend maybe $1T/yr on new weapons? Why NATO gets more and more militarized? Why Israel is on the verge of attacking Iran? Where are we going to be in 1-3 yrs , as far as geo-economics and geo-politics are concerned? This is a very dynamic environment and unpredictable.
Re: gold value. I agree that gold does not carry whole lot of "utility" value. As far as utility goes simple metals like nickel or copper carry, probably much higher utility value that Pd , Pt,Ag, or any precious metal. However, gold has been historically used as a store of value and as money - therefore the flight will be to gold in times of panic. Nothing new here - at least 5,000 yrs have witnessed this behavior. We are in fiat currency environment only since 1971 - so this is huge experiment and very short, compared to 5000 yrs.
So, that's my rant,
Peter
how do we now what the brain power is currently in order to set a percent match? hard to calculate based on sheer number of people - surely we do not tap into or record all the brain power available....and is the computer not amplifying the effects of our own thoughts and will?
ReplyDeleteGood question. The 1% is debatable. Do you equate one transistor with one neuron? Do you take into consideration that 99% of human brainpower is unused? I don't know.
ReplyDeleteSo instead of 1% call it "x". It is very clear that with today's level, x, there is a very high rate of technological change and the pace is accelerating. With the ongoing trend of electronic computing capacity (plus electronic memory storage) doubling every 18 months, this will put us at 100x by 2022. I suggest 100x will in 2022 put upon us at 10 to 100 times the rate of technological change and scientific advancement that we see today. And this will lead to big societal change.
Yes, I agree, computing is just amplifying our own thoughts and will. I suppose our thoughts and will and use of computing could turn further toward things other than technological development and the advancement of the sciences. I still expect the changes will be of the same magnitude, just different...
Any way you look at it, the expected continued exponential increase in computing power has the possibility of hugely changing our society - and we should be concerned. We should go into this ride with bar in the down tight and locked position. I wouldn't suggest we fight it (to quote the Borg: "resistance is futile"), just be ready for it :-)
I think this is a really interesting topic and one that is under-reported. Personally, I think the tipping point will be when self-replicating, self-improving machines are created. That is a new world.
ReplyDeleteNo doubt, it will be a singularity event when self replicating machines appear on the scene in the physical world. But I'd suggest this is starting to happen already in the cyber world, and I bet it's from there that the "THE" technological singularity (the first one) will arise. Consider all of today's machines and electronic devices and how these are rapidly and thoroughly these are being networked to cyberspace. There's a good SF movie, "Virus", that shows nicely how the cyber might make its way into our physical world. There is an excellent SF novel, "The Hacker and the Ants" by Rudy Rucker, that deals with similar (but without all of the gore of "Virus").
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